Iliana Yotova Wins Bulgarian Presidency With 57.6 Percent in Tight Runoff

Iliana Yotova won the Bulgarian presidential election with 57.6 percent of the vote, defeating challenger Andrey Gyurov, who received 39.5 percent. The official results confirm a decisive victory for the incumbent, who ran on a platform opposing military aid to Ukraine. Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who backed Yotova, stated that the electorate chose peace over war.

The runoff concluded a campaign that began on September 25. Early polling suggested a clear advantage for Yotova, who led with 44.5 percent of the vote. Gyurov trailed significantly behind at 26.1 percent. However, the first round proved closer than predicted, with Yotova securing 34.8 percent and Gyurov following closely at 31.95 percent. This result necessitated the second round contest.

Sociologist Dimitar Ganev of the Trend market and electoral research agency noted a distinct generational and geographical split in voting patterns. Voters aged 18 to 40 favored Gyurov, while those over 40 preferred Yotova. Gyurov dominated in the capital, Sofia, whereas Yotova won decisively in smaller regional cities and rural villages.

Yotova positioned herself as the president of peace during the campaign. At an election rally on October 6, she declared that not a single Bulgarian soldier would go to Ukraine if voters placed their trust in her. Although the Bulgarian Constitution grants parliament the authority to send troops abroad, Yotova used this promise to differentiate herself from her opponent. She referred to Gyurov and his supporters as warmongers throughout the race.

In contrast, Gyurov campaigned primarily through social media and maintained a pro-European stance. Appointed as caretaker prime minister by Yotova in February, he signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine in March. That move drew criticism from both Yotova and Radev, who oppose military aid to Ukraine and criticize European leaders for insufficient engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Recent drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea influenced the political discourse. The European Council criticized Russia for the escalation, while the European Parliament called for a potential EU naval operation. Radev, however, took a more restrained approach, summoning the Russian ambassador and suggesting the outcome of the attacks favored the Russian Federation. He downplayed the Kremlin's responsibility, a remark that drew criticism from Romanian officials.

Yotova targeted pro-Russian voters to secure their support. In a podcast interview two days before the runoff, she stated that Russia is not an enemy of Bulgaria and is part of the country's history. She expressed hope that Russia would be a key factor in Europe's future security architecture. Her rhetoric aligned with the stance of her party, Progressive Bulgaria, which won an absolute majority in the parliamentary election on April 19.

Turnout on election day was less than 30 percent. Most opposition parties, including the right-wing conservative GERB led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, did not field a candidate. In the first round, pro-Russian candidate Kostadin Kostadinov finished third with 12.5 percent of the vote. Ganev estimated that approximately 70 percent of Kostadinov's supporters backed Yotova in the runoff.

Former Defense Minister Todor Tagarev, who helped nominate Gyurov, argued that Yotova's victory linked the peace narrative to a fear of war. He predicted Bulgaria would be in a worse position within Europe and NATO under her leadership. Ganev countered that over two-thirds of Bulgarians maintain a positive attitude toward the EU and do not question the country's geopolitical orientation.

Yotova described the campaign focus as a discussion about income and peace. She stated that the victory came from talking to people about these core issues. The result solidifies the political alignment between the executive and legislative branches, both of which favor a diplomatic approach to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.