Democrats favored to take House as Trump faces low approval ratings

Democrats are positioned to capture the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, according to historical data and current polling.

President Donald Trump entered his second term with a mandate to lower prices, but voters are blaming his administration for continued increases in the cost of goods and energy. The war with Iran and the implementation of tariffs have directly contributed to these price hikes. Trump’s approval ratings have hit record lows, and opposition intensity is at a high point.

The economic divide is widening. Wealthy Americans are benefiting from stock portfolios dominated by artificial intelligence companies, while many working families struggle with inflation that outpaces wage growth. A middling labor market and rising interest rates are making it harder for millions of people to purchase homes or cars. In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 44% of respondents said their finances had stayed the same, while 38% reported their economic situation had worsened. Only 15% said things had improved.

Historical patterns favor the opposition party during midterm years. Since World War II, the president’s party has gained seats in the House in only two midterm elections. When a president’s approval rating falls below 50%, as Trump’s has, their party loses an average of 35 seats. If approval remains above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats. Trump has acknowledged this historical trend multiple times during campaign events.

Democrats have performed well in special elections and the 2025 off-year elections, signaling strength for the midterms. The unpopular Iran war and skyrocketing gas prices have further eroded Republican support. Democrats are favored to win the House and are within striking distance of taking the Senate, a position that was considered unlikely at the start of the cycle.

Structural factors may limit the size of Democratic gains. The Cook Political Report rates about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018, when Democrats won more than 40 net seats. Mid-decade redistricting has provided a slight advantage to Republicans. An NPR analysis estimates that Republicans gained an eight-seat advantage from redistricting efforts, a figure that may vary depending on voting patterns among Latinos in South Texas.

Both parties face challenges with voter perception. While Republicans face headwinds, Democrats are not viewed positively by all constituencies. The party has struggled to satisfy its base. However, self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged in this cycle. In the latest poll, 44% of respondents said their vote was a vote against Trump, while 21% said it was a vote for him.

The 2028 presidential election will begin almost immediately after the midterms. Candidates seeking a national profile are expected to announce their intentions in January or February. The outcome of the midterms will hinge significantly on Republican turnout in red states. Trump has traveled to these areas to urge his base to vote. Without high GOP turnout, a small Democratic gain in the Senate could expand to six or seven seats.

Election night results may not be final for days or weeks. Trump is already preparing to challenge results if they do not favor his party, a pattern seen after previous elections. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their preferred candidate likely should not accept the results. Most Americans across party lines believe their states will conduct fair elections and that candidates should accept the outcome. Republican candidates have reduced mentions of Trump in their advertisements, reflecting his status as a liability with swing voters despite his support among the base.