Alaska Senate Race Stalls at 500-Vote Gap

Mary Peltola leads incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan by approximately 500 votes in the Alaska Senate race. This narrow margin keeps the contest in play as election night progresses.

As of 11 a.m. EST on Wednesday, Peltola held 48.2 percent of the vote against Sullivan’s 47.9 percent. Decision Desk HQ data indicated that roughly 70 percent of the expected total vote had been counted. Peltola currently exceeds her required benchmarks in 26 of the 40 state house districts. Sullivan surpasses his marks in the remaining 14 districts.

Peltola leads in 24 of the state house districts. The average turnout in districts where Peltola is ahead stands at 68.6 percent of the expected vote. In districts where Sullivan leads, the average reported turnout is higher at 73.2 percent. This difference suggests more results may still come in for the Republican incumbent.

Alaska uses a ranked choice voting system. If neither candidate reaches 50 percent, the state will initiate an instant runoff. This process reallocates votes based on voters’ second, third, and fourth preferences. The procedure cannot start until all ballots are fully processed.

Because of the state’s rural geography, ballots have 15 days to arrive. The Alaska Division of Elections does not require reporting of additional vote totals until November 10. Most remaining early and mail ballots will be counted on that date. The final vote count will be determined by November 18, when the state will execute the ranked choice voting if necessary.

A separate ballot proposition to repeal ranked choice voting is currently losing by nearly four points. Nonpartisan site Votebeat confirmed that no new votes are expected until November 10. Decision Desk HQ projections show Democrats have secured seven Senate seats so far. Alaska and Mississippi remain undecided. A win in Alaska would provide an additional seat rather than being a strict requirement for Senate control.