Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, Marathon expected to post double-digit EPS gains

Major U.S. oil and gas producers are poised to report quarterly results that more than double year over year.

ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Marathon Petroleum will release figures in the coming days. Analysts project earnings per share for the three integrated majors to exceed last year's totals by a wide margin. Marathon Petroleum faces the highest expectations, with a consensus estimate of $25.37 per share. That figure compares to $17.73 earned three months ago and $4.51 a year prior. The increase reflects higher oil prices and expanded crack spreads on refined products. These factors are expected to add $13 billion to the Ohio-based firm's sales in one year.

Investors are focusing on capital allocation and forward guidance rather than just current revenue. Companies are expected to detail their spending plans for future projects. Any shifts in these budgets will influence how the market values the sector. A source in the industry noted that leaders are prepared for political scrutiny over rising consumer prices. The source argued that current windfalls serve as a buffer against future price drops, a dynamic inherent to the boom-and-bust cycle of energy markets.

Valuation metrics indicate the sector has risen sharply. The S&P Refining Index is up nearly 160% in 2026, marking its strongest performance in at least three decades. Jonathan Krinsky, a chart analyst at BTIG, advised caution regarding this rally. He noted that such rapid gains often precede a period of consolidation or a sharp decline. Krinsky specifically cited the charts for Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum. He observed that Marathon's stock has not yet broken its uptrend, but the technical indicators suggest a reversal is approaching.

The earnings releases arrive amid geopolitical tension in the Middle East. A U.S. Navy vessel was recently spotted in the Arabian Gulf, a position that helps secure shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. This presence aims to keep oil flowing while risks of renewed conflict with Iran persist. Separately, European energy markets face pressure from low natural gas storage levels and high imported LNG prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently discussed the role of American LNG in supporting Europe's supply chain during a visit to a nuclear plant in Illinois.

Wright's administration is offering billions in loan guarantees to expand domestic nuclear power. The earnings season will test whether the market prices in these geopolitical risks or focuses on the immediate cash flow. The data will reveal how much of the current profit surge is driven by temporary market spikes versus structural changes in demand.