Three Michigan House Races Swing Congress

Michigan voters will decide the balance of power in the U.S. House on November 3.

Three House districts in the state are currently rated as toss-ups by Cook Political Report. These contests could determine whether Republicans keep their four-seat majority. The 4th, 7th, and 10th Congressional Districts are the focal points of this national battle. Democrats hope to flip at least one of these seats to check the administration during its final two years.

The race in the 7th District is the most expensive in the cycle. Ad spending has already reached nearly $60 million. Candidate Will Lawrence has spent over $33 million on advertising. His opponent, Rep. Tom Barrett, has spent more than $27 million. Marty Jordan, a political science professor at Michigan State University, called the seat a bellwether for the entire House. He stated that it is highly unlikely Democrats retake the chamber if they do not win the 7th District.

In the 4th District, Rep. Bill Huizenga faces state Sen. Sean McCann. Huizenga has held the seat since 2011 and won by 11 points in 2024. McCann chairs the Senate Energy and Environment Committee. John Clark, a professor at Western Michigan University, noted that McCann has stronger name recognition and fundraising than previous Democratic challengers. Clark said turnout in college towns like Kalamazoo will be the deciding factor. He added that if students vote in large numbers, Democrats will likely win across the district.

The 10th District became open when Rep. John James ran for governor. Democrat Christina Hines is challenging Republican Michael Bouchard. Bouchard is the son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. Dave Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University, said the shared name gives Bouchard an advantage in the voting booth. Hines is a prosecuting attorney who campaigns on lowering health care costs. Bouchard focuses on border security and tariffs.

Nationwide, Republicans hold the House by four seats. In Michigan, the GOP represents seven of the 13 congressional districts. One incumbent has already left: Rep. Shri Thanedar lost the Democratic primary to Donavan McKinney. McKinney is the favorite to win the 13th District. Democrats also target the 1st District, where Callie Barr runs against Jack Bergman. Bergman won the seat by 20 points two years ago. The Michigan Republican Party said voters are coming out in full force for Bergman. Cook Political Report still labels that race a solid Republican hold.