UK Aid Spending to Miss 2027 Target by £400 Million

The United Kingdom is projected to spend £400 million less on international aid in 2027 than its own government target requires.

The Center for Global Development (CGD) calculated that UK aid will reach 0.29% of national income by the end of next year, falling short of the 0.3% goal set by the Treasury. The research group described a larger shortfall of £580 million as very plausible, while the most conservative estimate in the data still indicates a gap of £250 million.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD, described these figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid. He noted that closing a £400 million gap would halve the planned cuts to Africa. Those cuts are expected to cost thousands of lives and effectively remove UK aid from the south and east of the continent.

The CGD attributed the deficit to two main factors. Inflation has outpaced expectations, meaning national income is larger than forecast during the spending review. A 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) also contributed to the gap. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week's budget to avoid missing the target.

The 0.3% target is well below the 0.7% commitment made in Labour's election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the goal to free up money for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending in the upcoming budget. She stated that missing the reduced target is not an abstract accounting issue, pointing to communities without clean water and undelivered vaccines.

Charities have warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and raise disease risks in some African countries. FCDO figures released in September showed that the cuts under Starmer's government hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118 million. The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024.

The government has prioritized funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and Gavi. An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 were based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson added that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.