Tehran Defies Washington as Brent Crude Remains Near $115

Iranian officials stated on Sunday that their government’s position will not change, regardless of whether President Donald Trump orders a resumption of military strikes. The declaration came as global energy markets remained tense, with Brent crude trading near $115 per barrel early Monday. This price level reflects continued supply concerns tied to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, particularly as Northern Hemisphere winter approaches and demand for heating fuel rises.

President Trump framed his upcoming decision in binary terms during a Sunday interview on Fox News. He said, "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" This follows his Friday comment that the United States "may do another little Epic Fury," a reference to the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that began on Feb. 28. Trump also asserted that the U.S. currently controls the Strait of Hormuz and criticized the 2015 nuclear deal, from which he withdrew during his first term.

Speculation among analysts has grown that new strikes could be ordered after the U.S. midterm elections next Tuesday. To support this potential action, the United States has dispatched a third aircraft carrier group to the region. However, American diplomatic staffing in the area has been reduced, a move that complicates the current indirect contacts between Washington and Tehran.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the issue at a televised event in Tehran, stating that the prospect of a new war has not altered his government’s strategic thinking. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said. He added that Washington and Israel had already attempted to change Iran’s posture twice and would achieve no different result. Esmaeil Baqaei, the foreign ministry spokesperson, confirmed that the window for diplomacy remains open, with messages still being relayed through intermediaries despite weeks of stalled direct talks.

Physical disruptions to shipping continue to weigh on the market. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center reported Monday that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile on Friday, disabling the vessel. The crew was reported safe. Iran previously claimed to have hit at least four tankers near the strait on Thursday, though these claims were not independently corroborated. Trump accused Tehran of fabricating such attacks to inflate prices before the midterms.

Regional powers are moving to cool the situation. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin are scheduled to meet with Iranian security officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei, in Tehran on Monday. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit supports de-escalation efforts backed by Qatar and Pakistan. These talks occur eight months after the start of the regional war.

Violence also persisted in Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and destroyed two launchers in Sanaa. The Iran-backed Houthis claimed they hit Riyadh’s international airport with a missile shortly after flights resumed. They also reported striking oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its major investment conference to 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran and its proxies might attack to disrupt Tuesday’s elections. "Don't test us," he said. Defense Minister Israel Katz dismissed a Channel 12 report of a clash between Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir over a new military directive, calling the story "entirely baseless." Netanyahu had earlier labeled the report "rubbish." The Iranian foreign ministry stated that the outcome of the Israeli election makes no difference to Tehran’s policy.

The combination of diplomatic stalling, military buildup, and physical attacks on shipping keeps the market in a state of high alert. With the U.S. holding a third carrier group in place and regional mediators in Tehran, the next few days will likely determine whether the current diplomatic channel holds or if the threat of renewed strikes materializes. For now, the price of oil remains the most immediate indicator of the market’s assessment of risk.